What Happens at a Fed Meeting, and Why It Affects Your Money
Eight times a year, the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee meets to decide the federal funds rate, the rate banks charge each other overnight. That decision filters through to what you earn on savings and pay on cards and loans, and it often moves the stock market on the day.
Checked October 12, 2026. Updated after each meeting.
- The Fed's committee meets 8 times a year to set the federal funds rate, now 3.75%–4.00% after a hike on September 16, 2026.
- Decisions come out at 2:00 p.m. ET on the meeting's second day; minutes follow three weeks later.
- Rate changes hit variable rates first: savings, credit cards and HELOCs. Existing fixed-rate loans don't change.
- Next decisions: October 28 and December 9, 2026.
Where rates are now
On September 16, 2026, the Fed raised its target range by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase since 2023, citing inflation that "remains elevated." The vote was 12–0. Most officials' projections showed one more increase before the end of 2026.
| Next events | Date |
| FOMC meeting (no new projections) | October 27–28, decision October 28 at 2:00 p.m. ET |
| Minutes of the October meeting | November 18 |
| Last meeting of 2026 (with projections) | December 8–9 |
How a meeting works
- Who decides: the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). It has 12 voting members: the 7 Fed governors, the president of the New York Fed and 4 of the other 11 regional Fed presidents, who rotate each year.
- The decision: a short statement released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day, followed by the chair's press conference at 2:30.
- The dot plot: four meetings a year (March, June, September, December) include each official's projection for rates, growth and inflation.
- The minutes: a detailed summary of the discussion, released three weeks after each decision. Markets read them for hints about the next move.
Who's who at the Fed
- Board of Governors: 7 members in Washington, appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate for 14-year terms. The chair and vice chair serve 4-year terms in those roles.
- 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks, from Boston to San Francisco, each led by a president.
- The FOMC combines the 7 governors with 5 bank presidents as voters. The New York Fed president always votes; the other 4 seats rotate yearly. All 12 presidents take part in the discussion.
Timeline of a meeting
| When | What happens |
| About a week before | A "blackout" starts: officials stop giving speeches on policy |
| Day 1 | Staff briefings on the economy and markets; discussion begins |
| Day 2, morning | Officials state their views and vote |
| Day 2, 2:00 p.m. ET | Statement and decision released (plus projections at four meetings a year) |
| Day 2, 2:30 p.m. ET | The chair's press conference |
| 3 weeks later | Minutes released |
| 5 years later | Full transcripts released |
How markets guess the decision
Traders bet on the Fed's moves through fed funds futures, and tools like CME's FedWatch turn those prices into probabilities. The Fed rarely surprises markets, so on the day, the reaction often depends more on the statement's wording and the chair's comments than on the decision itself. As of early October 2026, futures pricing pointed to a hold on October 28 as more likely than a hike, with December seen as the likelier meeting for the next increase. The September inflation report, due October 14, could shift that.
Data the Fed watches
| Report | Why it matters |
| Consumer Price Index (CPI) | The best-known inflation measure. See what is the CPI? |
| PCE price index | The Fed's preferred inflation measure; its 2% target is based on this |
| Monthly jobs report | Shows hiring and unemployment, the other half of the mandate |
| GDP | How fast the economy is growing |
| Oil and energy prices | Fed officials cited energy-driven inflation in the September 2026 hike |
What rate changes do to bonds
When rates rise, existing bonds fall in price, because new bonds pay more. A rough rule: a bond fund's price falls by about its "duration" in percent for each 1-point rise in rates. A fund with a duration of 6 would drop about 6% if rates rose 1 point, while its future payouts would rise. Short-term Treasury bills are barely affected. See where to buy Treasury bills.
What rate changes do to stocks
Higher rates make borrowing more expensive for companies and make safer assets like bonds and savings accounts more attractive, which can weigh on stock prices, especially fast-growing companies whose profits are far in the future. Lower rates tend to do the opposite. Over long periods, company earnings matter more than any single Fed meeting, so long-term investors don't need to change course around them.
Where to follow a meeting
The statement is posted at federalreserve.gov at 2:00 p.m. ET, and the press conference is streamed live on the Fed's website and YouTube channel. We update this page after each meeting.
What a rate change means for you
| When the Fed raises rates | When it cuts | |
| High-yield savings and CDs | Rates usually rise | Rates usually fall |
| Credit cards and HELOCs | Rates rise within a billing cycle or two (they're tied to the prime rate, now 7.00%) | Rates fall |
| Mortgages | Often rise, but they follow the 10-year Treasury yield more than the Fed | Often fall, not always |
| Existing fixed-rate loans | No change | No change |
| Stocks | Often a headwind | Often a tailwind |
Only variable rates move directly. A fixed-rate mortgage or car loan you already have stays the same.
What to do about it
- Savings: make sure your cash earns a competitive rate. See best high-yield savings accounts or where to buy Treasury bills.
- Card balances: paying down variable-rate debt matters more when rates are rising.
- Investments: don't trade around Fed days. Markets often swing on the announcement and settle within days. Regular investing works the same either way.
What the Fed is trying to do
Congress gave the Fed two goals, known as the dual mandate: maximum employment and stable prices. It defines stable prices as 2% yearly inflation. When inflation runs above that, the Fed tends to raise rates to cool borrowing and spending. When the job market weakens, it tends to cut.
Recent rate history
| Period | What the Fed did | Target range afterward |
| March 2022 – July 2023 | Raised rates 11 times to fight inflation | 5.25%–5.50% |
| September 2024 – December 2025 | Cut rates as inflation eased | 3.50%–3.75% |
| September 16, 2026 | Raised 0.25 points, citing elevated inflation | 3.75%–4.00% |
The Fed's tools
- The federal funds rate target, the main tool.
- Interest on reserve balances, the rate the Fed pays banks on money they keep with it (3.90% since September 17, 2026), which helps hold market rates in the target range.
- Its balance sheet: buying or letting Treasury and mortgage bonds run off, which affects longer-term rates such as mortgages.
How to read a Fed statement
The statement is short, and markets focus on small wording changes. "Hawkish" language stresses inflation and hints at higher rates; "dovish" language stresses the job market and hints at cuts. The September 2026 statement said inflation "remains elevated" and that the hike would support "a timelier return" to 2%, which markets read as hawkish.
What a 0.25-point change means in dollars
| Your situation | Change per year |
| $5,000 credit card balance | About $12.50 more interest |
| $50,000 HELOC balance | About $125 more interest |
| $10,000 in a high-yield savings account | About $25 more interest earned |
| Existing fixed-rate mortgage | No change |
One move is small. Several in a row, as in 2022–2023, add up.
FAQ
How often does the Fed meet? Eight scheduled times a year, about every six weeks. It can also hold unscheduled meetings in an emergency.
What time is the Fed announcement? 2:00 p.m. Eastern on the second day of the meeting, with the chair's press conference at 2:30 p.m.
What are the Fed minutes? A detailed summary of what officials discussed at a meeting, released three weeks later. They don't contain a new decision.
What is the prime rate? The base rate banks use for cards and HELOCs. It's usually the top of the Fed's target range plus 3 percentage points, so 7.00% right now.
Who is the Fed chair? Kevin Warsh, who took office in May 2026.
Does the Fed set mortgage rates? Not directly. Mortgage rates follow longer-term bond yields, which react to Fed policy and inflation expectations.
What is the dot plot? A chart of each official's projection for the federal funds rate, published four times a year with the Summary of Economic Projections.
Can the Fed change rates between meetings? Yes, in an emergency, as it did in March 2020. It's rare.
What's the difference between the federal funds rate and the discount rate? The federal funds rate is what banks charge each other overnight. The discount rate (primary credit rate, 4.00% now) is what the Fed charges banks that borrow directly from it, set slightly higher.
What is quantitative tightening? When the Fed shrinks its holdings of bonds by letting them mature without replacing them. It tends to push longer-term rates up a little.
Does the Fed affect crypto prices? Indirectly. Higher rates tend to weigh on riskier assets, including crypto, and lower rates tend to help.
Why does the Fed raise rates if it hurts borrowers? To slow spending and bring inflation back down. High inflation erodes the value of wages and savings for everyone.
Figures and rules in this article are checked against the official sources below. Where they disagree with us, they win.
